New FAU Poll Reveals Razor-Thin Margin Between Harris and Trump

With just one week until Election Day, a new national poll from Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab reveals a razor-thin margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Harris holding a narrow one-point lead, 48% to 47%.

Despite Harris’s slight national edge, the new poll, released today at noon, underscores the importance of eight swing states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, a state that is still recovering from Hurricane Milton’s devastation.

“The national picture continues to look very competitive, but a movement of a few points in the swing states could make it look like a blowout in the Electoral College,” Dr. Kevin Wagner told MediaLab@FAU.

As the election approaches, small shifts in voter turnout or demographic preferences could decisively impact the Electoral College outcome. 

“So much is going to depend on the turnout in key areas,” Wagner emphasized.

Polling data has shown fluctuating support, with Harris's summer momentum giving way to tightening races in key battlegrounds. From the announcement of her candidacy in July, Harris began her campaign with strong momentum, but recent polls suggest she is losing ground in key battleground states. Compared to the current one-point margin between the candidates, in August, 47% of voters supported Harris compared to Trump’s 43%, according to FAU’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab).

This sets a high-stakes stage for both campaigns, intensifying their efforts to secure votes in regions where just a few points could decide the presidency.

In the Sunshine State, where Trump holds a more decisive lead — 53% to 44% according to the latest poll conducted by Mainstreet Research — voters are also weighing high-profile ballot measures on marijuana legalization and abortion rights.

The Mainstreet Research poll found that 60% of likely voters would support Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21 and older, the exact threshold needed for the measure to pass. Legalizing marijuana could have significant economic benefits to the state, with the potential to generate as much as $431 million annually in sales tax revenue. Trump, a Florida resident, fully supports legalization, while Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is adamantly against it.

The poll also found that 58% of respondents were voting in support of Amendment 4, which says that “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” This ballot measure reflects the broader ongoing national debate on reproductive rights.

With critical issues like marijuana legalization and reproductive rights on the ballot, the upcoming election is not just about candidates but also about articulating the priorities that Floridians hold dear. As polling data fluctuates and the stakes rise, every vote will be vital in determining the trajectory of both state and national policy.